Arthur D. Little förutspår hur framtidens mobilitetslösningar kommer att påverka tillverkande bolag inom fordonsindustrin (OEM).
Arthur D. Little (ADL) släpper idag sin nya studie “The Future of Automotive Mobility”. Studien är baserad på en global undersökning med 6 500 deltagande kunder, industriaktörer och lagstiftare, och undersöker hur tre megatrender – elektrisk mobilitet, bildelning och autonoma fordon – väntas påverka fordonsindustrins globala ekosystem och framtida försäljning för OEM.
Rapporten observerar att framtidens mobilitetslösningar inte kommer att styras primärt av slutkundernas preferenser, utan i allt större utsträckning av lagstiftning, som följd av att städer försöker motverka de utmaningar som ökad stadstrafik medför, såsom trängsel och dålig luftkvalitet. Elektrisk mobilitet, bildelning och autonoma fordonslösningar kommer att spela viktiga roller i hanteringen av dessa utmaningar – samtidigt som effekten på produktionsvolymen för traditionella OEM inte nödvändigtvis behöver bli så allvarlig som vissa experter har förutspått.
En viktig komponent inom autonom bilkörning är till exempel lösningar för så kallad efterfrågestyrd mobilitet, ”mobility-on-demand”, i vilka kunder använder ”robottaxi”. Baserat på verkliga mobilitetsdata från nästan 100 megastäder har ADL simulerat vilken effekt användning av robottaxi får på mobilitetsmönster och bilförsäljning. Resultaten påvisade att även om samtliga bilar och 30% av kollektivtrafiken skulle ersättas av efterfrågestyrda lösningar såsom robottaxi, blir effekten på produktionsvolymen för fordonstillverkare relativt begränsad.
Klaus Schmitz, partner inom ADL förklarar att “i ett konservativt scenario, där 11 storstadsregioner implementerar den nya typen av stadstrafik1 innan 2030, kommer global fordonsförsäljning öka till 121 miljoner fordon per år, vilket motsvarar en ökning med 39% jämfört med dagens årliga försäljning på knappt 90 miljoner fordon. I ett mer progressivt scenario där 52 storstadsregioner driver utvecklingen, kommer försäljningen ändå att uppgå till 119 miljoner fordon, motsvarande en ökning med 34%.”
Rapporten detaljerar hur nya roller tillkommer i fordonsleverantörspyramiden, i takt med skiftet mot elektriskt driven spårtrafik och ökande betydelse av mjukvara. Förlorad kontakt med slutkunden som köper mobilitet väntas bli en utmaning för traditionella fordonstillverkare.
Wolf-Dieter Hoppe, författare av studien och Associate Director på ADL, varnar för att ”miljontals individuella kunder kommer att ersättas av ett fåtal stora, multinationella, fordonsflottor. Dessa kan komma att ta över den dominanta roll i ekosystemet som hittills varit förunnat OEM, då fordonsflottorna kommer att ta över direktkontakten med slutkund och samtidigt få betydande makt tack vare ökade volymer. Denna utmaning blir troligen särskilt påtaglig för dagens premiumtillverkare.”
För att ladda ned den fullständiga rapporten (engelska), vänligen klicka nedan: http://www.adlittle.com/downloads/tx_adlreports/ADL_Future_of_Automotive_mobility_short.pdf
1 Eng: ”urban mobility”
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Zum Arthur D. Little
Cate Bonthuys
Tel: +44 7746546773
cate@catalystcomms.co.uk
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