Moody’s Analytics Forecast: Resurgence of COVID-19 Could Cause Global Economic Depression
According to the Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast, real global GDP will fall by 4.5% this year as a result of COVID-19. Our base case for the US suggests that it will take until mid-decade for the economy to return to full-employment. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, describes the outlook in a new paper, Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy.
“COVID-19 has caused massive damage to the global economy. Quickly reopening economies will boost growth by unleashing pent-up demand, but will also raise the specter of a re-intensification of COVID-19 and another economic downdraft, which could lead to a worldwide depression. We construct our economic forecasts to help market participants navigate this daunting uncertainty and make better decisions,” said Mr. Zandi.
The Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast represents our view of the most likely trajectory for the global economy. The baseline forecast is part of a set of 12 forecast scenarios, updated monthly, that project alternative economic paths for more than 100 countries as well as sub-national regions in major markets. These scenarios are driven by different assumptions regarding the epidemiology of COVID-19, demand-side factors including monetary and fiscal policies, and longer-run structural forces such as sovereign debt loads and globalization. To help users, each scenario is assigned a probability based on its relative severity and our view of how likely it is to occur.
“Given the unprecedented uncertainty around the path of the virus and the policy response, we maintain several alternative scenarios that cover a range of possible outcomes to help users assess the impact on their businesses and portfolios,” added Mr. Zandi. “Our global team of economists is dedicated to developing scenarios that account for current conditions and the various risks facing economies that may impact their outlook.”
Forecasts are based on the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model, which balances economic theory and empirical behavior and is fully documented and validated. In addition to the probability-weighted monthly scenarios, Moody’s Analytics produces ad hoc thematic economic scenarios that forecast potential outcomes in the event of significant policy shifts or changes to economic fundamentals. Our new Global Debt Crisis thematic scenario examines the consequences of high and rising sovereign debt in the event that global growth slows and governments in both developed and emerging markets are unable to address their high and rising debt loads.
Our economic forecast scenarios can be accessed and downloaded in a variety of formats through a standalone subscription or with our dedicated economic and credit risk modeling tools.
The accuracy of our forecasting was recently recognized in the 2020 FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards, where Moody’s Analytics ranked #1 in 14 categories.
Our economic forecast scenarios are one of a number of Moody’s Analytics solutions that help leaders across industries make better decisions in the COVID-19 environment.
About Moody’s Analytics
Moody’s Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to help business leaders make better, faster decisions. Our deep risk expertise, expansive information resources, and innovative application of technology help our clients confidently navigate an evolving marketplace. We are known for our industry-leading and award-winning solutions, made up of research, data, software, and professional services, assembled to deliver a seamless customer experience. We create confidence in thousands of organizations worldwide, with our commitment to excellence, open mindset approach, and focus on meeting customer needs. For more information about Moody’s Analytics, visit our website or connect with us on Twitter or LinkedIn.
Moody's Analytics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Moody’s Corporation reported revenue of $4.8 billion in 2019, employs approximately 11,300 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 40 countries.
To view this piece of content from cts.businesswire.com, please give your consent at the top of this page.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200604005227/en/
Contact information
KATERINA SOUMILOVA
Moody’s Analytics Communications
+1.212.553.1177
Moody’s Analytics Media Relations
moodysanalytics.com
twitter.com/moodysanalytics
linkedin.com/company/
moodysanalytics
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
EIG Acquires a 49.87% Stake in Transportadora de Gas del Perú (TgP)19.12.2025 18:42:00 CET | Press Release
EIG, through its managed investment vehicles, acquired a 49.87% equity stake in Transportadora de Gas del Perú S.A. (“TgP”) from Canada Pension Plan Investment Board today. TgP operates Peru’s principal natural gas and natural gas liquids pipelines under a long-term concession, supplying approximately 40% of the country’s power generation. “We are delighted to complete this transaction and embark on the next chapter of our partnership with TgP,” said Matt Hartman, EIG’s Global Head of Infrastructure. “Our priority is to support TgP’s operational excellence and long-term stability, delivering value for customers and stakeholders throughout Peru.” About EIG EIG is a leading institutional investor in the global energy and infrastructure sectors with $24.3 billion assets under management as of September 30, 2025. EIG specializes in private investments in energy and energy-related infrastructure on a global basis. During its 43-year history, EIG has committed over $51.7 billion to the energ
Klarna Partners With Coinbase to Add Stablecoin to Funding Mix19.12.2025 18:00:00 CET | Press Release
Klarna, the global digital bank and flexible payments provider, has partnered with Coinbase to add stablecoin funding to its broad range of traditional sources of funding, which include consumer deposits, long-term loans and short-dated commercial paper. The digital bank plans to raise short-term funding from institutional investors denominated in USDC utilizing Coinbase’s digitally native infrastructure. Adding a USDC-denominated funding source enables Klarna to access USD-like funding directly, tapping into a new pool of institutional investors. “This is an exciting first step into a new way to raise funding,” said Niclas Neglén, Chief Financial Officer, Klarna, “Stablecoin connects us to an entirely new class of institutional investors, and gives us the potential to diversify our funding sources in ways that simply weren't possible a few years ago. This is just the beginning of how digital assets can work alongside our traditional funding sources." Klarna chose Coinbase for this ini
CyberArk Named a Leader in IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Integrated Solutions for Identity Security 202519.12.2025 17:00:00 CET | Press Release
CyberArk (NASDAQ: CYBR), the global leader in identity security, today announced that it has been recognized as a Leader in the IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Integrated Solutions for Identity Security 2025 Vendor Assessment. CyberArk extends dynamic privilege controls across all identity types with its unified platform, enabling organizations to improve efficiencies and streamline security operations. This IDC MarketScape report notes, “More change has occurred in the identity security marketplace in the past two years than in almost a decade. Vendors are entering a new phase defined by the emergence of intelligence technologies, none of which are specifically defined by any industry standards. Though different by design, the new adjacent IAM offerings are largely focused on improved vulnerability and threat management visibility and automated and predictive attack detection capabilities.” It also notes, “By addressing these evolving identity types within a unified framework, CyberArk enh
New York Liberty and Ant International’s Alipay+ Announce Multiyear Partnership Focused on Empowerment, Sustainability and Youth Development19.12.2025 14:30:00 CET | Press Release
The New York Liberty and Ant International’s Alipay+, a leading cross-border fintech services platform based in Singapore, today announced a multiyear partnership, making Alipay+ an Official Sponsor and Innovation Partner for Sustainability of the New York Liberty. Through this partnership, Alipay+ and the Liberty will jointly support community programs designed to advance community empowerment, environmental sustainability and youth development across New York City. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251219678825/en/ Peng Yang, CEO, Ant International and Clara Wu Tsai, Vice Chair, Brooklyn Sports and Entertainment; Governor, New York Liberty “Our partnership with Alipay+ goes beyond the game,” said Keia Clarke, Chief Executive Officer, New York Liberty. “Together, we are investing in the future of New York—its people, its environment, and its youth. Ant International’s commitment to community empowerment, sustai
Parse Biosciences and Codebreaker Labs Partner to Apply Whole Transcriptome Single Cell Profiling and Causal Genomics at Scale19.12.2025 14:00:00 CET | Press Release
Parse Biosciences, the leading provider of scalable and accessible single cell sequencing solutions, today announced a collaboration with Codebreaker Labs to develop and validate a breakthrough platform capable of testing thousands of genetic variants in parallel and measuring their effects at single cell resolution. By combining Codebreaker’s synthetic biology platform and variant engineering capabilities with the scale and accessibility of Parse’s Evercode™ technology, the collaboration aims to generate the causal data increasingly sought by AI developers, drug discovery teams, and clinical researchers. Today’s genomic studies rely heavily on observational data, or variants that appear in large populations. But rare and private variants, often only seen in one individual or family, are nearly impossible to study this way because too few carriers of the variant exist to draw statistically meaningful conclusions. As a result, even the most advanced models trained on observational datas
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom