Battle of Basel - everything you need to know

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Who needs points? 

The top 11 riders are already safe.

It would take an unlikely sequence of results for the next group of Ben Maher (12th, 46 points), Willem Greve (13th, 44 points), and Richard Vogel (14th, 42 points) to miss out. Our models suggest Richard Vogel is 93% likely to book his ticket to Basel tonight, making this the ‘almost certainly safe’ line.

For Richard Vogel not to qualify for the World Cup Finals in Basel, at least five of the following eight scenarios would need to occur in Sunday’s World Cup in Gothenburg:

1. Peder Fredricson wins 
2. Mario Stevens finishes on the podium
3. Harrie Smolders finishes 5th or higher
4. Edouard Schmitz finishes 7th or higher
5. Kim Emmen finishes 8th or higher
6. Denis Lynch finishes 9th or higher
7. Steve Guerdat finishes 14th or higher
8. Maikel van der Vleuten finishes14th or higher

That leaves three riders on 40 points—Maikel van der Vleuten and Steve Guerdat among them—who just need to add something to take their place in Basel.

On the Edge: Riders Fighting to Hold Their Spot

A total of 6 riders are competing in Gothenburg with a goal to secure their ticket to the 2025 Basel World Cup Finals.

Holding Steady: Staying in the Top 18

While both Maikel van der Vleuten (#15) and Steve Guerdat (#17) are currently in the safe zone on 40 points, they could do with a couple more points to ensure their spot in Basel. Both riders come in with big chances - see below.

Maikel’s Beauville Z N.O.P. is currently the second-highest rated horse in the world and in the form of his life, reaching a career-high Elo rating of 794, one of the Top 5 highest Elo ratings ever recorded. He is also the reigning Olympic Individual Bronze medalist.

Steve comes in on another individual Olympic medalist. On Dynamix de Belheme, he claimed Silver in Paris and will try to score some additional World Cup points to be able to compete in World Cup Finals on home soil.

Last Call for Basel: Who Can Break into the Top 18?

No rider has had quite the start to 2025 as Denis Lynch. Fresh off a double clear to help Team Ireland secure victory in the first Longines League of Nations in Abu Dhabi on Vistogrand, the pair comes to Gothenburg to try and claim a spot in the Finals. Currently ranked just outside the qualification zone in 19th place on 35 points. The current cut-off for the Finals lies at 37 points and will likely end up around the 42 point-mark. To get to that threshold, Denis would need 7 additional World Cup points, which translates to finishing in 10th place or higher in Sunday’s World Cup.

Currently in 20th place on 34 points, Kim Emmen comes to Gothenburg with a real fighting chance at qualification for Basel. To get to the projected 42-point qualification threshold, Kim would need to finish 9th or higher in the Gothenburg World Cup. She has entered her Olympic partner, Imagine, with whom she had finished 6th in last year’s Gothenburg World Cup.

Just like Steve Guerdat, Edouard Schmitz is also still vying for a place to compete in World Cup Finals in his home country. He is in need of 9 World Cup points to reach the projected 40-point threshold, which translates to a 8th place finish or higher on Sunday.

To get to his eighth World Cup Finals, Harrie Smolders will likely need at least 11 more points. He currently sits in 22nd place on the World Cup standings and would likely need an 6th place or higher in Sunday’s World Cup. He brings an exciting string of horses to the table including his Geneva Grand Prix winner, Monaco.

Do or Die: Riders Who Must Deliver in Gothenburg (and the dream story) Four additional riders are currently well outside the qualification zone, but with a podium performance in Sunday’s World Cup of Gothenburg could claim a spot in the World Cup Finals in Basel.

Mario Stevens has already collected 29 World Cup points and stands in 26th position in the standings. A podium position would give the German at least 15 more points, he could boost himself up the standings and qualify for the Finals.

As Yuri Mansur represents Brazil, he will not take a spot of the 18 qualified riders from the Western European League, but if he matches the amount of points of the lowest qualified rider in this league, he could enter the Finals as an extra. To get to the projected 42 point threshold, he would need to finish second or higher in Sunday’s World Cup.

The chances for Gothenburg home crowd are in the very capable hands of Peder Fredricson. He currently stands in 30th place in the World Cup standings on 24 points. To qualify for the Finals, the Swedish star would need to put in a huge performance in Sunday’s World Cup and take the win to add 20 World Cup points to his tally. In Catch Me Not S, he has a very experienced partner on his hands who knows how to perform in the Scandinavium Arena. The pair finished third in the World Cup here last year and also claimed bronze in the 2019 World Cup Finals held in Gothenburg. A win on Sunday could also bring Geraldine Straumann to her first World Cup Finals. So far, she has collected 22 World Cup points and the 20 points for the victory could give her enough points to qualify for Basel.

Steve Guerdat & Maikel van der Vleuten lead the field but still need a few points to be certain of qualification. Harrie Smolders must finish 6th or better to secure his place, while Denis Lynch, Kim Emmen, and Edouard Schmitz all need top finishes to make the cut.

For Peder Fredricson, the home crowd will be behind him as he chases victory with Catch Me Not S, while Henrik von Eckermann is already qualified and looking to put on a show.

The Favourites

Steve Guerdat & Dynamix de Belheme

• Elo: 775
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 58%

Steve Guerdat enters as the favourite with a 15% win chance. The reigning European Champions & Olympic Silver medalists have a strong record at this level and are chasing the last World Cup points to ensure qualification for World Cup Finals on home soil in Basel. However, he has been struggling with back trouble this week, which may impact his approach to the competition.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 40 points, Steve will likely need at least 2 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 14th place finish or higher.

Maikel van der Vleuten & Beauville Z

• Elo: 794
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 56%

Maikel van der Vleuten arrives in Gothenburg with a 13% win chance. Beauville Z N.O.P. currently sits on a career-high Elo rating of 794, one of the Top 5 highest Elo ratings ever recorded. Like Guerdat, he is relatively safe for Basel but would benefit from at least two more points to be certain of qualification.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 40 points, Maikel will likely need at least 2 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 14th place finish or higher.

Harrie Smolders & Monaco

• Elo: 770
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 47%

Entering on a 10% win chance, Harrie Smolders and Monaco are among the most experienced pairs in the field. Their recent success includes a major victory in the Rolex Grand Prix of Geneva. Harrie talked about Monaco in yesterday’s pre-competition World Cup press conference: “I didn’t want to overuse him this winter, but this weekend, he’s ready to step in." This pair have finished second in two consecutive World Cup Finals in 2022 and 2023, but are still in need of a couple of World Cup points to qualify for the 2025 Finals.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 31 points, Harrie will likely need at least 11 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 6th place finish or higher.

Hopes for the Home Nations

Peder Fredricson & Catch Me Not S

• Elo: 743
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 44%

Peder Fredricson will have the full support of the Swedish crowd as he attempts to keep the World Cup victory at home. At 19 years old, Catch Me Not S is the oldest and most experienced horse in the field. This pair has proven themselves in Gothenburg before, finishing third in this World Cup class last year and third in the 2019 World Cup Finals at this venue. To qualify for Basel, Fredricson will likely need to win or finish second at least.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 24 points, Peder will likely need at least 18 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a win.

Henrik von Eckermann & Toveks Azaria Dinero

• Elo: 699
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 36%

Henrik von Eckermann is no stranger to success in Gothenburg, having won this World Cup twice before, in 2017 and 2018, with Toveks Mary Lou. Coming off a win last night with Iliana, he will now compete with Toveks Azaria Dinero. As the defending World Cup Champion, von Eckermann is already qualified for Basel, meaning he is not under pressure for points but will be looking to deliver a strong performance in front of his home crowd.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Henrik is the defending World Cup champion, so is automatically qualified for the World Cup Finals in Basel

The Challengers

Denis Lynch & Vistogrand

• Elo: 757
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 41%

Denis & Vistogrand have been one of the most in-form combinations in 2025, producing a 71% clear rate at five-star 160 this season. He comes into Gothenburg needing the last World Cup points required for Basel. His recent form includes a double-clear performance in the Longines League of Nations in Abu Dhabi, helping Ireland secure victory last weekend.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 35 points, Denis will likely need at least 7 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 10th place finish or higher.

Kim Emmen & Imagine

• Elo: 742
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 38%

Kim Emmen and Imagine arrive in Gothenburg with a 4% win chance and a clear objective: securing enough points for Basel qualification. Their recent performances have been promising, finishing eighth in the Bordeaux World Cup and jumping double clear in Thursday’s 150 jump-off class to place fourth.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 34 points, Kim will likely need at least 8 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 9th place finish or higher.

Edouard Schmitz & Gamin van ‘t Naastveldhof

• Elo: 621
• Predicted Jumping Clear Chance: 21%

With Basel being a home World Cup Final, Edouard Schmitz is extra motivated to deliver a top performance. He still needs a few more points to qualify and while reflecting on his season, Schmitz admitted that things had not gone as smoothly as he had hoped. "I started the season in the best way possible with second place in Oslo, but then I had a long series of World Cups with just one down. It just kept happening." Now, with his back against the wall, he will need one of his best performances to secure his place in Basel.

What’s needed for Basel Qualification? Currently on 33 points, Edouard will likely need at least 7 more points to be sure of a spot in Basel, which translates to a 8th place finish or higher.

One Last Chance – Who Will Step Up?

The Scandinavium Arena has been home to some of the most dramatic World Cup battles in history. This Sunday, it all comes down to the final round.

One thing is certain: this weekend, Gothenburg decides.