New forecast: Church of Sweden membership in 2051

The new forecast covers the period up to 2051. That year has been chosen to highlight the fact that 100 years have passed since the Freedom of Religion Act became law in Sweden, enabling people to leave the Church of Sweden without having to join any other religious community.

According to the forecast, by 2051 the Church of Sweden is expected to have around 3.9 million members, 34 percent of the population. This compares to 2023, the year on which the forecast is based, when membership stood at 5.5 million, just over 52% of the population.

Gives an overall picture
“For the Church of Sweden, it is valuable to have a coherent description of how membership is expected to change year by year. It provides the opportunity to plan in good time for changing conditions, in terms of finances, organisation and what form the democratic structure may take in the future. It also gives a picture of how the changes will differ geographically”, says Jonas Bromander, a researcher at the Church of Sweden's Research and Analysis Unit.

“At the same time, the forecast helps to identify areas where the Church of Sweden itself can influence developments”, he continues.

Reaching young people is key
According to the forecast, the main reason for the expected fall in membership is that in the future there will be more members dying than joining, through baptisms or actively seeking membership. Against that background, reaching out to young people and young families will be key if we are to slow the expected trend, says Mr Bromander.

“We know that there is a lot of good work being done around the country today. For example, we have seen a slight increase in the number of confirmation candidates in recent years”.

Still the largest
Jonas Bromander emphasises that the further into the future a forecast extends, the more uncertainties there are.

“However, if you look at the 2000s so far, the forecast provides a realistic picture of future developments. Whether 3.9 million members should be seen as high or low depends on your perspective. But what is clear is that, with one third of the population, the Church of Sweden will still be Sweden's largest membership organisation by far in 25 years’ time”.

Camilla Asp, Secretary-General of the Church of Sweden, welcomes the fact that the parishes now have a stable base for their long-term work. She highlights the opportunities that the forecast creates for the Church of Sweden itself to influence the course of developments.

“At the moment, we are seeing several positive signals at the same time, not least regarding the increased interest in faith and the church being shown by young people. My hope is that the forecast serves as an incentive for continuing, and reinforcing, the good work being focused on these groups”.

How the forecast was calculated
The forecast is based on demographic data from Statistics Sweden (SCB) on expected births, deaths and population movements in Sweden in the 2023–2051 period. These data have been merged with the Church of Sweden's own statistics on baptisms and membership entries and exits.

The forecast assumes that the Church of Sweden will be able to maintain baptism rates throughout the period at the same level as in 2023, when a little more than 40 percent of all newborn babies were baptised in the Church of Sweden.

The forecast will be reviewed annually and, if necessary, adjusted to reflect changing conditions.

The Church of Sweden's last major membership forecast was made in 2013 and extends to 2030. This forecast has so far been very close to actual developments.

The report Members of the Church of Sweden 2023–2051 is attached to this press release (swedish).